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46:34

The Fed Is Losing Control — What Happens Next

Macro Alf · saved 2 hours ago

KEY INSIGHT

The Fed's credibility problem is now structural — markets no longer believe their inflation guidance, which means rate policy has become less effective than at any point since the 1970s.

Key Points

· Real rates turned negative in March — historically a precursor to asset repricing across all classes Ask →

· Dollar reserve status erosion accelerating — 12 central banks reduced USD holdings in Q1 2026 Ask →

★ The next Fed pivot will be forced by a credit event, not by inflation hitting 2% target Ask →

Q&A

What does he say about gold?

Alf sees gold as the clearest beneficiary — he argues central banks are structurally adding gold as a non-sovereign reserve asset, and this trend has years to run regardless of short-term rate moves.

What's his trade recommendation?

He doesn't give specific buy/sell calls, but positions long commodities and short duration Treasuries as the macro framework, with gold as the highest-conviction hold.

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